統一期貨阿雅

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

 

(中譯)

自7月FOMC會議後接獲的訊息顯示，經濟活動正以溫和的速度擴張。平均而言，勞工市場情況有些進一步改善。然而失業率少有變化，系列勞工市場指標顯示，勞工資源使用率仍大幅偏低。家庭支出似乎溫和上升，企業固定投資正在增加，而房屋市場復甦依舊緩慢。財政政策抑制了經濟成長，只是抑制的程度正在消退。通貨膨脹低於委員會的較長期目標。較長期通貨膨脹預期，仍然穩定。

 

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.

 

(中譯)

為符合法定任務，委員會尋求促進最大就業與物價穩定。委員會預期，由於適當的政策寬鬆，經濟活動將以溫和的速度擴張，勞工市場指標與通貨膨脹正邁向委員會認為符合雙重任務的水平。委員會認為，經濟活動與勞工市場展望的風險，幾乎已見平衡，並判斷自今年初以來，通貨膨脹持續低於Fed的2%目標的可能性，已有所消退。

 

The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.

 

(中譯)

委員會目前判斷，在較廣泛經濟體內，目前有足夠的強勢，得以支持勞工市場情況持續改善。自目前的資產購買計劃開始以來，基於邁向最大就業的累積進展與勞工市場情況展望改善，委員會決議進一步溫和減少購買資產的速度。自10月開始，委員會將以每月50億美元速度，而非每月100憶美元，增加持有機構抵押貸款擔保證券(MBS)，並以每月100億美元速度，而非每月150億美元，增加持有較長期政府公債。委員會將維持目前將所持有的機構債券與機構抵押擔保證券償還的本金，進行再投資機構抵押貸款擔保證券的政策，並將於公債標售中，將到期的公債進行展期。委員會持有的大量且不斷增加的較長期證券，當能持續對長期利率構成下降壓力，支撐抵押貸款市場，並協助讓更廣泛的金融情況更加寬鬆，繼而將促成更強勁的經濟復甦，並隨著時間，協助確保通貨膨脹處於最符合委員會雙重任務的水平。

 

The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will end its current program of asset purchases at its next meeting. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

 

(中譯)

 

To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.

 

(中譯)

為支持持續邁向最大化就業與物價穩定，委員會今日重申，高度寬鬆的貨幣政策立場，依舊適當。在決定維持聯邦基金利率於目前0至0.25%範圍多久方面，委員會將評估邁向最大化就業與2%通貨膨脹目標的進展--包括已實現與預期中二者。這項評估將考量廣泛訊息，包括勞工市場情況數據，通貨膨脹壓力與通貨膨脹預期指標，及金融發展數據。委員會持續預期，根據對這些因素的評估，在購買資產計劃結束後，維持目前聯邦基金利率目標範圍一段相當長時間，可能將屬適當，尤其若預期的通貨膨脹持續低於委員會2%的較長期目標，且較長期通貨膨脹預期持續獲得良好抑制的話。

 

When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.

 

(中譯)

 

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser. President Fisher believed that the continued strengthening of the real economy, improved outlook for labor utilization and for general price stability, and continued signs of financial market excess, will likely warrant an earlier reduction in monetary accommodation than is suggested by the Committee's stated forward guidance. President Plosser objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.