Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July suggests that economic activity is expanding at a moderate pace. On balance, labor market conditions improved somewhat further; however, the unemployment rate is little changed and a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant underutilization of labor resources. Household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has been running below the Committee's longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
 
(中譯)
7FOMC會議後接獲的訊息顯示,經濟活動正以溫和的速度擴張。平均而言,勞工市場情況有些進一步改善。然而失業率少有變化,系列勞工市場指標顯示,勞工資源使用率仍大幅偏低。家庭支出似乎溫和上升,企業固定投資正在增加,而房屋市場復甦依舊緩慢。財政政策抑制了經濟成長,只是抑制的程度正在消退。通貨膨脹低於委員會的較長期目標。較長期通貨膨脹預期,仍然穩定。
 
(簡評)
美國經濟持續維持溫和成長,各項經濟重要分項呈現出正向成長,僅增長速度快慢問題,整體而言可以”溫和復甦”形容,因此,貨幣政策較可能以更溫和方式調整,以避免影響復甦進程。
 
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee expects that, with appropriate policy accommodation, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, with labor market indicators and inflation moving toward levels the Committee judges consistent with its dual mandate. The Committee sees the risks to the outlook for economic activity and the labor market as nearly balanced and judges that the likelihood of inflation running persistently below 2 percent has diminished somewhat since early this year.
 
(中譯)
為符合法定任務,委員會尋求促進最大就業與物價穩定。委員會預期,由於適當的政策寬鬆,經濟活動將以溫和的速度擴張,勞工市場指標與通貨膨脹正邁向委員會認為符合雙重任務的水平。委員會認為,經濟活動與勞工市場展望的風險,幾乎已見平衡,並判斷自今年初以來,通貨膨脹持續低於Fed2%目標的可能性,已有所消退。
 
(簡評)
就業與物價為FED最大考量;根據FED2015年美國GDP成長率預估可能微幅下修至2.6%~3.0%,低於原先3%以上的成長,而2016年的預估值也同步向下微調,倒是失業率的預估值2015年預估落在5.4%~5.6%,大約落在FED長期目標區5.2%~5.5%之內,就業情況似乎逐步落入FED掌控區內;在物價部分,FED認為2015年個人消費支出平減指數(PCE)1.6%~1.9%,雖已低於2%上限目標,不過所去不遠,因此2015年上半年溫和升息的機率升高,重點在於各項指標均在上述復甦邊緣,貨幣政策力道可能較預期緩和。
 
The Committee currently judges that there is sufficient underlying strength in the broader economy to support ongoing improvement in labor market conditions. In light of the cumulative progress toward maximum employment and the improvement in the outlook for labor market conditions since the inception of the current asset purchase program, the Committee decided to make a further measured reduction in the pace of its asset purchases. Beginning in October, the Committee will add to its holdings of agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $5 billion per month rather than $10 billion per month, and will add to its holdings of longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $10 billion per month rather than $15 billion per month. The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction. The Committee's sizable and still-increasing holdings of longer-term securities should maintain downward pressure on longer-term interest rates, support mortgage markets, and help to make broader financial conditions more accommodative, which in turn should promote a stronger economic recovery and help to ensure that inflation, over time, is at the rate most consistent with the Committee's dual mandate.
 
(中譯)
委員會目前判斷,在較廣泛經濟體內,目前有足夠的強勢,得以支持勞工市場情況持續改善。自目前的資產購買計劃開始以來,基於邁向最大就業的累積進展與勞工市場情況展望改善,委員會決議進一步溫和減少購買資產的速度。自10月開始,委員會將以每月50億美元速度,而非每月100憶美元,增加持有機構抵押貸款擔保證券(MBS),並以每月100億美元速度,而非每月150億美元,增加持有較長期政府公債。委員會將維持目前將所持有的機構債券與機構抵押擔保證券償還的本金,進行再投資機構抵押貸款擔保證券的政策,並將於公債標售中,將到期的公債進行展期。委員會持有的大量且不斷增加的較長期證券,當能持續對長期利率構成下降壓力,支撐抵押貸款市場,並協助讓更廣泛的金融情況更加寬鬆,繼而將促成更強勁的經濟復甦,並隨著時間,協助確保通貨膨脹處於最符合委員會雙重任務的水平。
 
(簡評)
2014.10月起,FED再縮減QE購債規模100億美元,其中購買MBS規模降至50億美元,公債規模降至100億美元,值得一提的是,FED有意減緩QE縮減後的衝擊,強調購債到期本金再投入與持續持有MBS與公債,逆回購操作暫時不會出現,此舉意在使債券市場衝擊減緩。
 
The Committee will closely monitor incoming information on economic and financial developments in coming months and will continue its purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate, until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially in a context of price stability. If incoming information broadly supports the Committee's expectation of ongoing improvement in labor market conditions and inflation moving back toward its longer-run objective, the Committee will end its current program of asset purchases at its next meeting. However, asset purchases are not on a preset course, and the Committee's decisions about their pace will remain contingent on the Committee's outlook for the labor market and inflation as well as its assessment of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.
 
(中譯)
委員會將密切注意未來幾個月所接獲的有關經濟與金融發展的訊息,並將持續購買公債與機構抵押貸款擔保證券,並適當運用其他政策工具,直到在物價穩定情況下,勞工市場展望大幅改善若接獲的訊息,廣泛支持委員會對勞工市場情況持續改善且通貨膨脹邁向較長期目標的預期,委員會將在下次會議中,結束目前的購買資產計劃。然而,購買資產並非預定的行程,委員會對速度的決定,仍將依據委員會對勞工市場與通貨膨脹的展望,及對這些購債行動的可能效率與成本的評估而定。
 
(簡評)
下次會議可能正式結束QE,不過仍保留迂迴空間,並非宣告既定時程。
 
To support continued progress toward maximum employment and price stability, the Committee today reaffirmed its view that a highly accommodative stance of monetary policy remains appropriate. In determining how long to maintain the current 0 to 1/4 percent target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess progress--both realized and expected--toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments. The Committee continues to anticipate, based on its assessment of these factors, that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee's 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.
 
(中譯)
為支持持續邁向最大化就業與物價穩定,委員會今日重申,高度寬鬆的貨幣政策立場,依舊適當。在決定維持聯邦基金利率於目前00.25%範圍多久方面,委員會將評估邁向最大化就業與2%通貨膨脹目標的進展--包括已實現與預期中二者。這項評估將考量廣泛訊息,包括勞工市場情況數據,通貨膨脹壓力與通貨膨脹預期指標,及金融發展數據。委員會持續預期,根據對這些因素的評估,在購買資產計劃結束後,維持目前聯邦基金利率目標範圍一段相當長時間,可能將屬適當,尤其若預期的通貨膨脹持續低於委員會2%的較長期目標,且較長期通貨膨脹預期持續獲得良好抑制的話。
 
(簡評)
FED強調高度寬鬆的貨幣政策不變,爾且可望維持低利率政策一段相當長的時間,推測未來FED將持續推出極緩慢緊縮的貨幣政策工具,藉以微調市場利率,但正式升息可能不若預期的快速,這樣的進程若以鑄鐵形容,在歷經烈火鍛造的過程後,FED選擇以自然放涼,而非入水冷卻的快速塑形手段,當然將烈火燒融的鋼鐵放涼需要相當長的時間,而這也是FED觀測市場動向的緩衝空間。
 
When the Committee decides to begin to remove policy accommodation, it will take a balanced approach consistent with its longer-run goals of maximum employment and inflation of 2 percent. The Committee currently anticipates that, even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.
 
(中譯)
當委員會決定開始取消政策寬鬆時,將採取符合最大化就業與2%通貨膨脹長期目標的平衡方式為之。委員會目前預期,即使就業與通貨膨脹接近符合法定任務水準後,一段時間裡,經濟情況可能仍得以確保維持目標聯邦基金利率低於委員會認為較長期的正常水平。
 
(簡評)
FED在歷經2008金融風暴後的非常時期所採行的非常手段已逾三年,回歸正常化長期而言勢在必行,停止QE僅是第一步,升息使實質利率回升,出售MBS使FED資產負債表正常化都是未來長期趨勢,當然這些進程在今日複雜的國際經濟情勢下,隨時都有改變的可能,且看且走,重言輕手是FED目前的寫照。
 

 

Voting for the FOMC monetary policy action were: Janet L. Yellen, Chair; William C. Dudley, Vice Chairman; Lael Brainard; Stanley Fischer; Narayana Kocherlakota; Loretta J. Mester; Jerome H. Powell; and Daniel K. Tarullo. Voting against the action were Richard W. Fisher and Charles I. Plosser. President Fisher believed that the continued strengthening of the real economy, improved outlook for labor utilization and for general price stability, and continued signs of financial market excess, will likely warrant an earlier reduction in monetary accommodation than is suggested by the Committee's stated forward guidance. President Plosser objected to the guidance indicating that it likely will be appropriate to maintain the current target range for the federal funds rate for "a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," because such language is time dependent and does not reflect the considerable economic progress that has been made toward the Committee's goals.
 
圖一:美國十年期公債走勢圖
1  
圖二:美元指數走勢圖
 
2  
資料來源:鉅亨網
 
資料來源:FED http://www.federalreserve.gov
中譯來源:鉅亨網http://www.cnyes.com/
 
統一期貨投資顧問部     分析師 李宗霖整理製作

    全站熱搜

    張甯雅 發表在 痞客邦 留言(0) 人氣()